How does the war in Ukraine impact the security of the energy sector and how important is the energy transition in this scenario? Understand.
Since the beginning of Russia’s attacks on Ukraine in February 2022, the energy issue has been on the agenda, showing the urgency of accelerating the global energy transition, especially in the case of European countries.
With the sanctions imposed on Russia, there was a shortage of Russian oil and gas, bringing global consequences from an economic point of view. In other words, the increase in the price of gasoline and its derivatives, regardless of whether the fuel is of Russian origin or not, has had an impact on the value of all products transported by road.
The consequences of war and the security of the energy sector
At first, Europe will need to increase the burning of coal, a source that represents more than 16% of the continent’s matrix and generates environmental impacts with the emission of CO2. China, the country with the highest emission of gases on the planet, will also need to find ways to meet the demand for energy to sustain the growth forecast for this year and should bet on coal for that.
In addition, nuclear generation is also back on the agenda. Although Europe is already developing projects in renewables, they are long-term, like hydrogen. Therefore, at this moment, to maintain demand, it will be necessary to diversify the matrix in substitution of gas, and nuclear energy becomes a viable option. After the initial period, Europe should expand with renewables, increasing investments in clean sources.
With the price of fossil fuels higher, there is a stimulus for the expansion of renewable sources, with probable gains for Brazil, which has solar, wind and biomass energy in abundance. At this moment, the country has a new chance to devise strategies to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, as occurred in the 1970s, with the oil crisis that increased investments in ethanol production.
The global energy transition
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) report, global carbon dioxide emissions associated with energy increased by 6% in 2021, due to the economic recovery of several countries with the stabilization of the covid-19 pandemic. In this first moment, post-pandemic and with the war going on, the security of the energy sector is totally linked to the maintenance of fossil fuels. Therefore, it is up to each country to accelerate its energy transition, using the most viable sources, both in terms of availability and price.
For Brazil, the energy transition is a great opportunity and a great competitive advantage. After all, the country already has a diversified energy matrix, generating 48% of its energy from renewable sources, through hydroelectric, wind, solar and biomass. At the same time, it is necessary to reduce the consumption of sources that cause environmental impacts.
However, it is worth mentioning that for the transition to occur, it may be necessary to carry out fiscal transfers and other policies that mitigate the losses of those who depend on the production and use of fossils. Thus, it is important that the design of a new Brazilian energy market is flexible enough to incorporate the reality of the necessary innovations, adjusted to the old models that must still coexist.
Therefore, the security of the energy sector is directly linked to the energy transition. At that moment, major decisions could deepen the environmental and climate crisis, with its serious socio-economic impacts, or contribute to the construction of a fairer and more inclusive economic model that promotes a balance between emissions and the removal of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
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