The new global methane report delivers both good and bad news. The good news is that the growth of methane emissions has begun to lose momentum; the bad news is that the pace of reduction is still far from what is needed to keep global warming within the 1.5°C limit. In this context, methane is stepping out of the shadow of carbon dioxide and assuming a central role in the climate agenda, with direct implications for public policy, the energy transition, and project opportunities in Brazil.
Why methane raises so much concern
Although it remains in the atmosphere for a shorter period of time than carbon dioxide, methane has a far more intense warming effect over short time horizons. Over roughly 20 years, its heat-trapping capacity is more than 80 times greater than CO₂, making it one of the main drivers of the warming already observed since the beginning of the industrial era. Recent estimates indicate that methane is responsible for nearly one-third of the increase in global temperature so far, even though its atmospheric concentration is much lower than that of CO₂.
This “disproportionate weight” explains why scientists and negotiators now view methane reduction as one of the fastest and most effective ways to curb the worsening climate crisis over the coming decades. In other words: tackling methane does not replace CO₂ mitigation, but it can buy valuable time for the energy transition and structural changes in other sectors to advance.
The global commitment: 30% reduction by 2030
Recognizing this importance, nearly 160 countries have committed—starting in 2021—to reduce methane emissions by 30% by 2030 compared with 2020 levels. This trajectory is seen as compatible with efforts to limit global warming to around 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as envisioned in the Paris Agreement, and has been presented as one of the pillars of the decade’s climate strategy.
The new report evaluates how much progress has been made since this commitment was established. Its main conclusion is that attention to methane has reached a new level: national climate plans, sector policies, and investments have begun to address methane more directly, especially in sectors such as energy, waste, and agriculture. Yet, at the same time, the numbers reveal a significant gap between intention and outcome.
What is happening to methane emissions
Despite recent mobilization, global methane emissions have not yet entered a consistent downward trajectory. According to projections in the report, if all commitments and policies already announced are implemented as planned, emissions in 2030 will still be about 5% above 2020 levels. Looking further ahead, the reference scenario indicates an increase of around 21% in methane emissions by 2050, also relative to 2020.
The authors highlight that this projected growth would be even greater without the global commitment. In other words, the actions taken to date have prevented a faster escalation in emissions, but they have not been sufficient to reverse the curve. From a climate perspective, this is problematic: maintaining or increasing emissions of such a potent gas makes it much harder to keep global warming within a relatively safe range.
Methane in national climate plans: significant progress, but still insufficient
One positive aspect highlighted by the report is the way countries have incorporated methane into their official climate action plans. Among the nations that updated their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by mid-year, about 65% included targets, programs, or measures specifically addressing methane—a significant leap compared with 2020, when the topic barely appeared in many national documents.
The analysis estimates that if everything outlined in these plans were implemented fully and effectively, global methane emissions could fall by about 8% by 2030 relative to 2020. Politically, this result is considered “historic progress,” because it reflects a genuine shift in how countries address methane in their climate strategies. However, from the perspective of the global target, the outcome is still far below what was promised: an 8% reduction represents just over one-quarter of the 30% cut pledged in 2021.
Where methane comes from – and Brazil’s role
Globally, about 60% of methane emissions originate from human activities, mainly in three sectors: agriculture, waste, and energy. Agriculture accounts for a significant share, especially methane generated from ruminant digestion and manure management. In the waste sector, landfills and wastewater treatment plants are major sources. In the energy sector, leaks and flaring in oil, gas, and coal operations complete the picture, with substantial weight in countries heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
In Brazil, data from SEEG show that emissions associated with agriculture, land-use change, and waste play a central role in the national greenhouse gas inventory. This places the country in a paradoxical position: while highly vulnerable to climate impacts, Brazil also has enormous potential to reduce methane in agricultural chains and waste-management systems, turning part of this challenge into an opportunity.
Solutions already in place: biogas, biomethane, and waste management
The UN report and complementary studies emphasize that a significant share of methane emissions can be avoided with technologies already available—often at relatively low cost or even with positive economic returns. Among the solutions gaining ground are the use of biodigesters on farms, biogas capture in landfills, and methane recovery in sanitation systems for energy generation or biomethane production.
In Brazil, more farms are converting animal waste into biogas to generate electricity, replace fossil fuels, and produce biofertilizers—directly reducing emissions and improving efficiency. In landfills, projects for controlled flaring or energy generation from biogas already prevent significant emissions, particularly in major urban centers. Companies specializing in biogas, cooperatives, and sanitation utilities are active in this space, demonstrating the possibility of aligning methane reduction, energy transition, and new business models.
A practical example of this movement is the advancement of Brazilian companies dedicated to biogas projects, such as Eva Energia, which develop solutions in landfills and agribusiness to capture methane from waste and manure and convert it into renewable electricity and, in some cases, biomethane. Initiatives like these show how emissions currently recorded in climate inventories can be transformed into energy assets and business opportunities, while helping bring the country closer to global methane-reduction targets.
What must happen to bring targets closer to reality
Even with these advances, the report’s message is clear: the world is still far from meeting the 30% methane-reduction commitment by 2030. To narrow the gap between projections and targets, the authors highlight several priorities: strengthening regulations in the energy sector (especially leak control in oil and gas), scaling up biogas projects, and making structural improvements to waste and wastewater systems.
The report also underscores the need for dedicated financing lines, market instruments such as methane-focused carbon credits, and integration across climate, energy, agriculture, and sanitation policies. Without such coordination, promising initiatives risk remaining isolated, lacking the aggregate impact necessary to shift the global trajectory.
Methane as a test of climate seriousness
Ultimately, the new report makes clear that methane has become a practical indicator of the seriousness of climate policies. Because methane has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime yet a very strong warming effect in the near term, significant reductions can yield perceptible climate benefits within just a few decades, helping to prevent dangerous acceleration of global warming.
At the same time, the gap between the 30% target for 2030 and the roughly 8% reduction achievable with today’s national plans shows that there is still a substantial divide between rhetoric and implementation. Closing this gap will require a combination of technology, financing, and political will—and transforming methane, once an overlooked villain, into one of the priority levers of the transition to a low-carbon economy.
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