The global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is gaining momentum and is expected to significantly impact oil demand starting in 2030. According to the Decennial Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) 2032, prepared by the Energy Research Company (EPE), the increasing adoption of electric vehicles could reduce global oil demand by approximately 2 million barrels per day by 2035. This scenario is driven by growing awareness of climate change and the urgent need to shift to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources.
The PDE study highlights that in Brazil, the fleet of electric vehicles is expected to grow rapidly over the next decade, from the current 120,000 vehicles to over 2 million by 2032. This growth will be one of the main factors contributing to the reduction in fossil fuel demand in the country. The transition to electric vehicles will not only help reduce greenhouse gas emissions but also promote greater energy efficiency, as electric motors are, on average, three times more efficient than internal combustion engines.
However, this transition brings significant challenges, particularly in terms of charging infrastructure and the capacity to generate electricity. PDE 2032 predicts that to support the increase in the EV fleet, substantial investment will be required in the expansion of the electrical grid and the installation of fast-charging stations. It is estimated that electricity consumption to charge these vehicles could reach 10 TWh per year by 2032, representing about 1% of Brazil’s total electricity demand. This figure may seem modest, but it represents a significant increase compared to current consumption.
Moreover, the impact on oil demand will not be uniform globally. Regions with high penetration of electric vehicles, such as Europe and China, are expected to experience a more pronounced decline in oil demand. In regions where the adoption of electric vehicles is slower, such as most developing countries, the impact will be smaller, keeping oil demand at elevated levels for a longer period.
Additionally, it is important to highlight the role of renewable energy in this context. The transition to electric vehicles will only be truly effective in reducing emissions if the electricity used to charge these vehicles comes from renewable sources. In Brazil, where the energy matrix is predominantly renewable, with a focus on hydroelectric power, this transition will be less complex. However, in countries where energy generation still relies heavily on fossil fuels, the electrification of transportation may not bring the expected environmental benefits.
Electric vehicles can also contribute to diversifying the energy matrix and reducing dependence on oil, a non-renewable energy source. Although fossil fuels still represent a significant portion of the global energy matrix, the share of renewable energy has been growing rapidly. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2040, renewable energy will represent nearly 50% of the global installed electricity generation capacity. This growth will be crucial to ensuring that the electrification of transport results in a true reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
In summary, the adoption of electric vehicles promises to be one of the main drivers of change in global oil demand in the coming decades. However, for this transition to be successful, it will be necessary to invest in infrastructure, ensure that the energy used to charge these vehicles is clean, and promote public policies that encourage the adoption of more sustainable technologies. The combination of these strategies can not only reduce oil demand but also contribute to a cleaner and more sustainable energy future.
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